I’m thinking about a setup where growth is broadly flat, inflation remains elevated, central banks stay on the sidelines, and credit spreads widen modestly. It’s an uncomfortable mix: not weak enough to force a policy response, but not strong enough to dismiss inflation as the healthy byproduct of robust growth.Earlier in the year, bond markets […]
My perspective on inflation “Canadian headline inflation continues to move in the direction of the Bank of Canada’s 2% target, such that the BoC recently kept rates unchanged at 2.25%. I don’t anticipate any radical change from here, allowing the BoC to remain on the sidelines, absent significant deterioration in terms of economic growth, be it resulting […]
Here are my thoughts on the significant wave of mortgage renewals ahead of us in 2026: • The upcoming wave of renewals is very much on my radar. • A roughly 20% decline in real estate values from recent peaks has pushed loan‑to‑value (LTV) ratios higher, no doubt making some renewals more challenging. • That […]